Human-Nature Interaction in World Modeling with Modelica

Rodrigo Castro; Peter Fritzson; François Cellier; Safa Motesharrei; Jorge Rivas

Title:

Author:

Rodrigo Castro: Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland/Department of Computer Science, University of Buenos Aires, and CIFASIS-CONICET, Argentina Peter Fritzson: Department of Computer and Information Science, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden François Cellier: Computer Science Department, ETH Zurich, Switzerland Safa Motesharrei: National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC), Annapolis, MD, USA Jorge Rivas: Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA

DOI:

10.3384/ecp14096477

Download:

Full text (pdf)

Year:

2014

Conference:

Proceedings of the 10^th International Modelica Conference; March 10-12; 2014; Lund; Sweden

Issue:

096

Article no.:

050

Pages:

477-488

No. of pages:

Publication type:

Abstract and Fulltext

Published:

2014-03-10

ISBN:

978-91-7519-380-9

Series:

Linköping Electronic Conference Proceedings

ISSN (print):

1650-3686

ISSN (online):

1650-3740

Publisher:

Linköping University Electronic Press; Linköpings universitet

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It is our predicament that we live in a finite world; and yet we behave as if it were infinite. Steady exponential material growth with no limits on resource consumption and population is the dominant conceptual model used by today’s decision makers. This is an approximation of reality that is no longer accurate and started to break down. The World3 model; originally developed in 1970s; includes many rather detailed aspects of human society and its interaction with a resource-limited planet. However; World3 is a rather complex model. Therefore it is valuable for pedagogical reasons to show how similar behavior can be also realized with models that are much simpler. This paper presents a series of world models; starting with very simple exponential growth and predator-prey systems; then investigates a minimal human-nature model; Handy; and ends with a brief account of the World3 model. For the first time; a simple human-nature interaction model is made available in Modelica that distinguishes between dynamics of Elite and Commoner social groups. It is shown that Handy can reproduce rather complex behavior with a very simple model structure; as compared to that of world models like World3.

Keywords: Modelica; Simulation; Population Dynamics; World Models; Human-Nature Models.

Proceedings of the 10^th International Modelica Conference; March 10-12; 2014; Lund; Sweden

Author:

Rodrigo Castro, Peter Fritzson, François Cellier, Safa Motesharrei, Jorge Rivas

Title:

Human-Nature Interaction in World Modeling with Modelica

DOI:

http://dx.doi.org/10.3384/ecp14096477

References:

[1] Cellier, François. World3 in Modelica: Creating System Dynamics Models in the Modelica Framework. In Proceedings of the 6th International Modelica Conference, Bielefeld, Germany. 2008.

[2] Fritzson, Peter. Principles of Object Oriented Modeling and Simulation with Modelica 2.1, 940 pages, ISBN 0-471-471631, Wiley-IEEE Press. Feb. 2004.

[3] Lotka, Alfred J. Elements of Mathematical Biology. Dover Publications, New York, 1956.

[4] Malthus, T. An Essay on the Principle of Population. Printed for J. Johnson, in St. Paul’s Church-Yard, London, 1798. (Reprint. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books, 1998).

[5] Meadows D., Meadows D., Randers J., and Behrens III W.W. Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind. 205p. Universe Books, New York, 1972.

[6] Meadows D., Behrens III W.W., Meadows D., Naill R.F., Randers J., and Zahn E.K.O. Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World. 637p. Wright-Allen Press, 1974.

[7] Meadows D., Randers J., and Meadows D. Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update. 368p. Chelsea Green, 2004.

[8] Modelica Association. Modelica?A Unified Object-Oriented Language for Physical Systems Modeling: Language Specification Version 3.2 rev 2. Available at http://www.modelica.org, August, 2013.

[9] Motesharrei S., Rivas J., and Kalnay E. A Minimal Model for Human and Nature Interaction. Accepted for publication (expected 2014) Journal Ecological Economics.

Proceedings of the 10^th International Modelica Conference; March 10-12; 2014; Lund; Sweden

Author:

Rodrigo Castro, Peter Fritzson, François Cellier, Safa Motesharrei, Jorge Rivas

Title:

Human-Nature Interaction in World Modeling with Modelica

DOI:

https://doi.org10.3384/ecp14096477

Note: the following are taken directly from CrossRef

Citations:

Safa Mote, Jorge Riva & Eugenia Kalnay (2020). A Novel Approach to Carrying Capacity: From a priori Prescription to a posteriori Derivation Based on Underlying Mechanisms and Dynamics. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 48(1): 657. DOI: 10.1146/annurev-earth-053018-060428

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Last updated: 2019-11-06

Linköping University Electronic Press

Proceedings of the 10th International Modelica Conference; March 10-12; 2014; Lund; Sweden

Proceedings of the 10th International Modelica Conference; March 10-12; 2014; Lund; Sweden

Proceedings of the 10^th International Modelica Conference; March 10-12; 2014; Lund; Sweden

Proceedings of the 10^th International Modelica Conference; March 10-12; 2014; Lund; Sweden