Kjell Eriksson
DNV Research & Innovation, Norway
Peter Friis-Hansen
DNV Research & Innovation, Norway
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http://dx.doi.org/10.3384/ecp11057572Published in: World Renewable Energy Congress - Sweden; 8-13 May; 2011; Linköping; Sweden
Linköping Electronic Conference Proceedings 57:1, p. 572-579
Published: 2011-11-03
ISBN: 978-91-7393-070-3
ISSN: 1650-3686 (print), 1650-3740 (online)
Climate change is real and owners and operators of critical infrastructures need to adapt to a different environment. Decisions will have to be made under large degree of uncertainty. There are today no specific methods that combine global climate models with infrastructure design methods. Hence the uncertainty in the decisions becomes even larger.
The paper presents a method for combining state-of-the-art climate modelling; meteorological approaches; with state-of-the-art structural design methods in a decision theoretic frame. This has; to our knowledge; not been done before. The decision framework will help authorities to make complicated and critical decisions with respect
to how to prepare for future changes in the environment. The work is based on the climate models used in the current and updated IPCC Reports; regional and local meteorological and oceanographic models; and the DNV Recommended Practice on environmental loads; DNV-RP-C205.
The decision theoretic frame is risk-based where expected loss will be expressed in monetary terms. The approach is applicable to critical infrastructures; power generation and transmission; and offshore oil and gas installations.
The paper will address key design parameters; likely climate change scenarios; time horizon of the infrastructure or installation in question; limitations of existing climate models; combination of global and regional climate models; how to downscale results and; ultimately; how to convert the results into a design basis.
The methodology presented in the paper is based on ongoing research partly financed by the Norwegian Research Council and partly by DNV.
