Hong Wang
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Yong He
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada \
Department of Soil and Water Sciences, Resources and Environmental Sciences College, China Agricultural University, China
Budong Qian
Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Brian McConkey
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Herb Cutforth
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Tom McCaig
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Grant McLeod
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Robert Zentner
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Con Campbell
Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Ron DePauw
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Reynald Lemke
Saskatoon Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
Kelsey Brandt
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Tingting Liu
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada \ Renmin University of China, Beijing, China
Xiaobo Qin
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada \ Institute of Agro-Environment and Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences, China
Gerrit Hoogenboom
Washington State University, USA
Jeffrey White
USDA ARS, ALARC, USA
Tony Hunt
University of Guelph, Canada
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http://dx.doi.org/10.3384/ecp11057644Published in: World Renewable Energy Congress - Sweden; 8-13 May; 2011; Linköping; Sweden
Linköping Electronic Conference Proceedings 57:10, p. 644-651
Published: 2011-11-03
ISBN: 978-91-7393-070-3
ISSN: 1650-3686 (print), 1650-3740 (online)
This study assessed the impact of climate change on wheat production for ethanol in southern Saskatchewan; Canada. The DSSAT-CSM model was used to simulate biomass and grain yield under three climate change scenarios (IPCC SRES A1B; A2 and B1) in the 2050s. Synthetic 300-yr weather data were generated by the AAFC stochastic weather generator for the baseline period (1961-1990) and scenarios. Compared to the baseline; all three scenarios increase precipitation every month except July and August and June (A2 only); when less rains are projected. Annual air temperature is increased by 3.2; 3.6 and 2.7 oC for A1B; A2 and B1; respectively. The model predicted increases in biomass by 28; 12 and 16% without the direct effect of CO2 and 74; 55 and 41% with combined effect (climate and CO2) for A1B; A2 and B1; respectively. Similar increases were found for yield. However; the occurrence of heat shock (>32oC) will increase during grain filling under climate change conditions and could cause severe yield reduction; which is not simulated by DSSAT-CSM; therefore; the yield could be overestimated. Several measures such as early seeding must be taken to avoid heat damage and take the advantage of projected increase in precipitation.
