Conference article

A Framework for Early and Approximate Uncertainty Quantification of Large System Simulation Models

Magnus Eek
Saab Aeronautics, Linköping, Sweden

Johan Karlén
Saab Aeronautics, Linköping, Sweden

Johan Ölvander
Machine Design, IEI, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden

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Published in: Proceedings of the 56th Conference on Simulation and Modelling (SIMS 56), October, 7-9, 2015, Linköping University, Sweden

Linköping Electronic Conference Proceedings 119:9, s. 91-104

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Published: 2015-11-25

ISBN: 978-91-7685-900-1

ISSN: 1650-3686 (print), 1650-3740 (online)


Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is vital to ensure credibility in simulation results and to justify model-based design decisions – especially in early development phases when system level measurement data for traditional model validation purposes are scarce. Central UQ challenges in industrial applications are computational cost and availability of information and resources for uncertainty characterization. In an attempt to meet these challenges, this paper proposes a framework for early and approximate UQ intended for large simulation models of dynamical systems. A Modelica simulation model of an aircraft environmental control system including a liquid cooling circuit is used to evaluate the industrial applicability of the proposed framework.


uncertainty quantification; aleatory uncertainty; epistemic uncertainty; model validation; aircraft system simulation models; Modelica


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