Konferensartikel

This article investigates the impact of various policies on the reduction of CO₂ emissions from Iranian cement industry using a long range energy alternative planning (LEAP) model. A Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario for the existing Iranian cement industry was applied. Moreover; the current and future demands for the cement industry were defined for 2005-2020. The current and future productivity of the cement industry was predicted in the BAU scenario. Then; three alternative scenarios were considered: replacement of heavy oil with natural gas; implementation of energy efficiency policies and integrated emission reduction; which includes all of the options over a 15-year period. The results indicated that in 2020; CO₂ equivalent emissions would reach 61 million tons in the baseline scenario and 53 million tons in the integrated emission reduction scenario. If fuel switching were employed; the emissions would reach 58 million tons (4.9 % reduction) and in the energy efficiency scenario; the emissions would reach 55 million tons (9.8% reduction) in 2020. Therefore; the integrated scenario reduces the total CO₂ equivalent emissions by 8 million tons (13% emission reduction).

CO₂ emission; cement industry; scenario analysis; energy model