Hong Wang
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Yong He
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada \
Department of Soil and Water Sciences, Resources and Environmental Sciences College, China Agricultural University, China
Budong Qian
Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Brian McConkey
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Herb Cutforth
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Tom McCaig
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Grant McLeod
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Robert Zentner
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Con Campbell
Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Ron DePauw
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Reynald Lemke
Saskatoon Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
Kelsey Brandt
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
Tingting Liu
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada \ Renmin University of China, Beijing, China
Xiaobo Qin
Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada \ Institute of Agro-Environment and Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences, China
Gerrit Hoogenboom
Washington State University, USA
Jeffrey White
USDA ARS, ALARC, USA
Tony Hunt
University of Guelph, Canada
Ladda ner artikel
http://dx.doi.org/10.3384/ecp11057644Ingår i: World Renewable Energy Congress - Sweden; 8-13 May; 2011; Linköping; Sweden
Linköping Electronic Conference Proceedings 57:10, s. 644-651
Publicerad: 2011-11-03
ISBN: 978-91-7393-070-3
ISSN: 1650-3686 (tryckt), 1650-3740 (online)
This study assessed the impact of climate change on wheat production for ethanol in southern Saskatchewan; Canada. The DSSAT-CSM model was used to simulate biomass and grain yield under three climate change scenarios (IPCC SRES A1B; A2 and B1) in the 2050s. Synthetic 300-yr weather data were generated by the AAFC stochastic weather generator for the baseline period (1961-1990) and scenarios. Compared to the baseline; all three scenarios increase precipitation every month except July and August and June (A2 only); when less rains are projected. Annual air temperature is increased by 3.2; 3.6 and 2.7 oC for A1B; A2 and B1; respectively. The model predicted increases in biomass by 28; 12 and 16% without the direct effect of CO2 and 74; 55 and 41% with combined effect (climate and CO2) for A1B; A2 and B1; respectively. Similar increases were found for yield. However; the occurrence of heat shock (>32oC) will increase during grain filling under climate change conditions and could cause severe yield reduction; which is not simulated by DSSAT-CSM; therefore; the yield could be overestimated. Several measures such as early seeding must be taken to avoid heat damage and take the advantage of projected increase in precipitation.
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