Elin Svensson
Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg, Sweden
Thore Bernsson
Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg, Sweden
Ladda ner artikel
http://dx.doi.org/10.3384/ecp110571481Ingår i: World Renewable Energy Congress - Sweden; 8-13 May; 2011; Linköping; Sweden
Linköping Electronic Conference Proceedings 57:1, s. 1481-1488
Publicerad: 2011-11-03
ISBN: 978-91-7393-070-3
ISSN: 1650-3686 (tryckt), 1650-3740 (online)
The pulp and paper industry has many promising opportunities in the biorefinery field. To reach this potential; investments are required in new; emerging technologies and systems solutions which cannot be quickly implemented. In this paper; an approach to model the necessarily long planning times for this kind of investments is presented. The methodology used is based on stochastic programming; and all investments are optimized under uncertain energy market conditions. The uncertain cost development of the emerging technologies is also considered. It is analyzed using scenario analysis where both the cost levels and the timing for market introduction are considered. The effect of long lead times is studied by assuming that no investments can be decided on now and implemented already today; and only investments planned for today can be implemented in; for example; five years. An example is presented to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach. The example includes the possibility of future investment in lignin separation; and shows how the investment planning of industrial energy efficiency investments can be guided by using the proposed systematic approach. The example also illustrates the value of keeping flexibility in the investment planning.
Investment planning; Optimization under uncertainty; Process integration; Lignin separation; Pulp and paper industry
[1] M. Olsson; E. Axelsson; T. Berntsson; Exporting lignin or power from heat-integrated Kraft pulp mills: A techno-economic comparison using model mills; Nordic Pulp and Paper Research Journal 21; 2006; pp. 476–484.
doi:
10.3183/NPPRJ-2006-21-04-p476-484.
[2] A. Van Heiningen; Converting a Kraft pulp mill into an integrated forest biorefinery; Pulp & Paper-Canada; 107; 2006; pp. 38–43.
[3] V. Chambost; J. McNutt; P.R. Stuart; Guided tour: Implementing the forest biorefinery (FBR) at existing pulp and paper mills; Pulp & Paper-Canada; 109; 2008; 19–27.
[4] S. Consonni; R.E. Katofsky; E.D. Larson; A gasification-based biorefinery for the pulp and paper industry. Chemical Engineering Research & Design; 87; 2009; 1293-1317.
doi: 10.1016/j.cherd.2009.07.017.
[5] M. Marinova; E. Mateos-Espejel; N. Jemaa; J. Paris; Addressing the increased energy demand of a Kraft mill biorefinery: The hemicellulose extraction case. Chemical Engineering Research & Design; 87; 2009; 1269-1275.
doi: 10.1016/j.cherd.2009.04.017.
[6] R. Fornell; Energy Efficiency Measures in a Kraft Pulp Mill Converted to a Biorefinery Producing Ethanol; Licentiate Thesis; Heat and Power Technology; Chalmers University of Technology; 2010.
[7] K. Pettersson; S. Harvey; CO2 emission balances for different black liquor gasification biorefinery concepts for production of electricity or second-generation liquid biofuels; Energy; 35; 2010; pp. 1101-1106.
doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2009.06.003.
[8] E. Svensson; A.-B. Strömberg; M. Patriksson; A scenario-based stochastic programming model for the optimization of process integration opportunities in a pulp mill; ISSN 1652-9715; no. 2008:29; Mathematical Sciences; Chalmers University of Technology; 2008.
[9] E. Svensson; T. Berntsson; A.-B. Strömberg; M. Patriksson; An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty; Energy Policy; 37; 2009; pp. 680–685.
doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10.023.
[10] E. Svensson; T. Berntsson; Planning future investments in emerging technologies for pulp mills considering different scenarios for their investment cost development; Submitted for publication; 2010.
[11] R. Fourer; D.M. Gay; B.W. Kernighan; AMPL: A Modeling Language for Mathematical Programming; Duxbury Press / Brooks/Cole Publishing Company; 2nd Edition; 2003.
[12] IBM ILOG; CPLEX: High-Performance Software for Mathematical Programming and Optimization; Version 12.1.
[13] E. Axelsson; M. Olsson; T. Berntsson; Heat integration opportunities in average Scandinavian Kraft pulp mills: Pinch analyses of model mills; Nordic Pulp and Paper Research Journal; 21; 2006; pp. 466–475.
doi: 10.3183/NPPRJ-2006-21-04-p466-475.
[14] E. Axelsson; S. Harvey; Scenarios for assessing profitability and carbon balances of energy investments in industry; AGS Pathways report 2010:EU1; 2010.
[15] E. Svensson; T. Berntsson; Using optimization under uncertainty to study different aspects of process integration investment decisions – The example of lock-in effects; Proceedings of ECOS; 2010.
