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Developing a Probabilistic Tool for Assessing the Risk of Overheating in Buildings for Future Climates

David P. Jenkins
Urban Energy Research Group, School of Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK

Sandhya Patidar
School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK

Phil Banfill
Urban Energy Research Group, School of Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK

Gavin Gibson
School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK

Ladda ner artikelhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3384/ecp110571996

Ingår i: World Renewable Energy Congress - Sweden; 8-13 May; 2011; Linköping; Sweden

Linköping Electronic Conference Proceedings 57:33, s. 1996-2003

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Publicerad: 2011-11-03

ISBN: 978-91-7393-070-3

ISSN: 1650-3686 (tryckt), 1650-3740 (online)

Abstract

The effect of projected climate change on building performance is currently a growing research area. Building designers and architects are becoming more concerned that buildings designed for the current climate might not provide adequate working and living environments in the coming decades. Advice is needed to guide how existing buildings might be adapted to cope with this future climate; as well as guidance for new building design to reduce the chances of the building failing in the future. The Low Carbon Futures Project; as part of the Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC) programme in the UK; is looking at methods of integrating the latest climate projections from the UK Climate Impact Programme (UKCIP) into building simulation procedures. The main obstacle to this objective is that these projections are probabilistic in nature; potentially thousands of equally-probably climate-years can be constructed that describe just a single scenario. The project is therefore developing a surrogate procedure that will use regression techniques to assimilate this breadth of climate information into the building simulation process.

Nyckelord

Climate change; Building simulation; Overheating

Referenser

[1] UK Government Department of Communities and Local Government; Proposals for amending Part L and Part F of the Building Regulations; April 2010

[2] M. Holmes and J.N. Hacker; Climate change; thermal comfort and energy: Meeting the design challenges of the 21st Century; Energy and Buildings 39; 2007; pp. 802-814

[3] P.D. Jones et al.; UK Climate Projections science report: Projections of future daily climate for the UK from the Weather Generator; available from http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk

[4] Adaptation and Resilience in a Changing Climate Network (ACN); Programme website http://www.ukcip-arcc.org.uk/content/view/605/519/

[5] Low Carbon Futures project summary page; http://www.ukcip-arcc.org.uk/images/stories/pdfs/lowcarbon_future_leaflet.pdf

[6] Carbon Vision Buildings “Tarbase” project website; http://www.tarbase.com

[7] A.D. Peacock; D.P. Jenkins and D. Kane; Investigating the potential of overheating in UK dwellings as a consequence of extant climate change; Energy Policy 38; 2010; pp. 3277-3288

[8] D.P. Jenkins; A.D. Peacock and P.F.G. Banfill; Will future low-carbon schools in the UK have an overheating problem?; Building and Environment 44; 2009; pp. 490-501

[9] S. Patidar; D.P. Jenkins; G. Gibson; and P.F.G. Banfill; Statistical techniques to emulate dynamic building simulations for overheating analyses in future probabilistic climates; Journal of Building Performance Simulation; In Press; 2010

[10] Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers (CIBSE); Environmental Design; CIBSE Guide A; 2006

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