Use of Stochastic Weather Generators in the Projection of Building Energy Demand in a Changing Climate

David R. S. Williams
Centre for Environmental Strategy, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Surrey, UK

Lucia Elghali
Parsons Brinckerhoff, Westbrook Mills, UK

Russel C. Wheeler

Ladda ner artikelhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3384/ecp110572056

Ingår i: World Renewable Energy Congress - Sweden; 8-13 May; 2011; Linköping; Sweden

Linköping Electronic Conference Proceedings 57:41, s. 2056-2063

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Publicerad: 2011-11-03

ISBN: 978-91-7393-070-3

ISSN: 1650-3686 (tryckt), 1650-3740 (online)


Compliance with building codes in many countries requires energy simulation of designs in local climate conditions. However; over a building’s lifespan; weather conditions may alter considerably due to climate change. There is a risk therefore that a future climate may alter lifecycle heating and cooling demands from those experienced today. The development of ‘stochastic weather generators’ provides an opportunity to produce synthetic weather data representative of a future climate. These models are calibrated against observed data; before being refitted to the climate change projections of global circulation models. The generator’s output is thousands of years of weather data for a particular future time period. Theoretically these outputs would be appropriate for building energy demand simulation; although analysis of such a high number of projected years would be impractical. This research has developed a method whereby a unique energy “fingerprint” is created for a building and used to estimate heating and cooling demands without the requirement for hours of computation. Energy demand estimates from the fingerprint have been crosschecked with dynamic simulation; indicating a high degree of correlation. The weather generator utilised in this study has been produced by the UK Climate Impact Programme (UKCIP) and is freely available on-line.


Climate change; building energy demand


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