Punctuality and Capacity in Railway Investment: A Socio-Economic Assessment for Finland

Luca Corolli
TRENOlab s.r.l.s., Gorizia, Italy

Giorgio Medeossi
TRENOlab s.r.l.s., Gorizia, Italy

Saara Haapala
Ramboll Finland, Espoo, Finland

Jukka-Pekka Pitkänen
Ramboll Finland, Espoo, Finland

Tuomo Lapp
Ramboll Finland, Espoo, Finland

Aki Mankki
Ramboll Finland, Espoo, Finland

Alex Landex
Ramboll Denmark, Copenhagen S, Denmark

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Ingår i: RailNorrköping 2019. 8th International Conference on Railway Operations Modelling and Analysis (ICROMA), Norrköping, Sweden, June 17th – 20th, 2019

Linköping Electronic Conference Proceedings 69:18, s. 270-279

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Publicerad: 2019-09-13

ISBN: 978-91-7929-992-7

ISSN: 1650-3686 (tryckt), 1650-3740 (online)


This paper presents two methods designed to provide quantitative data for analysing the socio-economic impacts of rail network improvements developed for the Finnish Transport Agency. The first is a capacity estimation method; it adapts the UIC 406 method to the characteristics of the Finnish rail network. The second method estimates delay propagation based on the key characteristics of lines; in this case distinct formulas were developed using regression for single- and double-track lines. The proposed methods were evaluated based on actual and simulated data from Finland and the UK. They provide network saturation and delay data for evaluation of capital improvements by network managers. The study results were approved and adopted by the Finnish Transport Agency.


Capacity estimation, Delay propagation, UIC 406, Mathematical regression, Finland


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