Scenario Analysis of the Potential for CO<sub>2</sub> Emission Reduction in the Iranian Cement Industry

Farideh Atabi
Graduate School of Energy and the Environment, Science & Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

Mohammad Sadegh Ahadi
National Climate Change Office, Department of Environment, Tehran, Iran

Kiandokht Bahramian
Environmental Engineer, Graduate School of Energy and the Environment, Science & Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

Ladda ner artikelhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3384/ecp11057740

Ingår i: World Renewable Energy Congress - Sweden; 8-13 May; 2011; Linköping; Sweden

Linköping Electronic Conference Proceedings 57:23, s. 740-746

Visa mer +

Publicerad: 2011-11-03

ISBN: 978-91-7393-070-3

ISSN: 1650-3686 (tryckt), 1650-3740 (online)


This article investigates the impact of various policies on the reduction of CO2 emissions from Iranian cement industry using a long range energy alternative planning (LEAP) model. A Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario for the existing Iranian cement industry was applied. Moreover; the current and future demands for the cement industry were defined for 2005-2020. The current and future productivity of the cement industry was predicted in the BAU scenario. Then; three alternative scenarios were considered: replacement of heavy oil with natural gas; implementation of energy efficiency policies and integrated emission reduction; which includes all of the options over a 15-year period. The results indicated that in 2020; CO2 equivalent emissions would reach 61 million tons in the baseline scenario and 53 million tons in the integrated emission reduction scenario. If fuel switching were employed; the emissions would reach 58 million tons (4.9 % reduction) and in the energy efficiency scenario; the emissions would reach 55 million tons (9.8% reduction) in 2020. Therefore; the integrated scenario reduces the total CO2 equivalent emissions by 8 million tons (13% emission reduction).


CO<sub>2</sub> emission; cement industry; scenario analysis; energy model


[1] IPCC; 2000; Special Report on Emission Scenarios; A special report of working group III of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Cambridge University Press; Cambridge; UK

[2] IPCC; 1997; Technical Paper 2 ; Second assessment report

[3] Ministry of energy; 2007; Energy balance; Energy Department; I.R.I

[4] Ahadi; M.S. et al.; 2005; Policy making of energy resources in industry; National Climate Change Office; Department of Environment; Tehran; Iran

[5] Kumar Amit; et al.; 2003; Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of biomass energy technologies in Vietnam using the long range energy alternative planning system model; Energy Policy Journal; No. 28; pp. 627-654

[6] Shin; H.C.; Park J.W.; Kim; H.S.; Shin; E.S.; Environmental and economic assessment of landfill in Korea using LEAP model; Energy Policy Journal; No. 33; 2005 ; pp.1261-1270. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2003.12.002.

[7] Song; HO-JUN; et al.; 2007; Environmental and economic assessment of the chemical absorption; Energy Policy Journal; No. 35; pp. 5109-5116

[8] Sangwon Park; et al.; 2007; Assessment of CO2 and reduction potential in Korea petroleum using energy models; Energy Journal; No. 35;pp. 2419-2420

[9] Ministry of Industry; 2006; Cement production in 2020; Energy department; I.R.I

[10] Energy Efficiency Office; 2005; Report on energy efficiency in the cement industry; Ministry of Energy; I.R.I

[11] Institute for International Studies; 2004; Prediction of energy demand for in various energy sectors; Ministry of Oil; I.R.I

[12] Hoseini; S.A.; 2009; Assessment of energy efficiency potential in cement industry; Cement Research Center; I.R.I

[13] Ministry of Energy; 2005; Report on energy intensity in the cement industry; Energy Department; I.R.I

Citeringar i Crossref